Sunday, March 30, 2008

Free Advertising


With all the viral marketing that goes around the internet these days, when I first came across this website, I thought it must be another example of the technique. Then I began to realize I was surprised my own parents hadn't created the website first! To anyone who has been to a Costco on a Saturday at mid-day, it won't come as a surprise to find that the warehouse club chain can attract a pretty rabid following.

Now, there certainly are some items at Costco I've grown fond of, but when I began to work the typical 9-5 M-F business work week and only could get to Costco on nights and weekends, I lost comprehension for how Costco is able to convince its member to pay $50 a year to subject themselves to such a shopping experience (at least here in DC)!!

A typical weekend trip to Costco here consists of slowly circling a parking lot looking for an empty space while trying not to drive over the roves of customers. Once showing your paid membership card to the doorman like you're headed to some VIP club, you get to slowly try to make your way through a gigantic yet somehow packed store with a ridiculously over-sized shopping cart. At the end of course you get to finish it off with a long line at every register where every customer has hundreds of dollars worth of groceries to scan. Oh and I almost forgot the finishing touch of no bagging available--you're lucky if someone will give you some old cardboard trays to precariously pile your items in.

I guess I must be in the minority though, because somehow through an ingenious business model, Costco has managed to be so loved by their fans that they incur the type of free advertising you see at the Addicted to Costco blog. In fact it is precisely that business model and culture which made me disbelieve any notions that it could be viral. Clearly they are doing many things right in that warehouse.

Friday, March 28, 2008

Tightwads vs. Spendthrifts


The Globe and Mail reports on an interesting study that delineates not just between the behaviors of so-called "spendthrifts" and "tightwads" but the actual physical reaction between them. Tightwads, according to the study, feel an emotional pain when paying money for anything. On the flip side of the coin, Spendthrifts felt an emotional pleasure whenever purchasing something.

What makes the study more interesting than just our common sense perception of money transactions is that the pain was felt regardless of whether the person was rich or poor or whether it was an expensive purchase or a just a moderate one every day one.

It somewhat saddens me to say that I am definitely in the tightwad camp. I thought that this might get better with age as my income and financial independence increased, but alas, even weekly groceries give me a slight pang at the cashier. Fortunately, heavy usage of credit cards in lieu of cash seems to dissipate this feeling--concurring with the findings of similar study at Standford University.

What is perplexing about the findings is that even in this day and age of heavy credit card debt, tightwads outnumber spendthrifts by 3:2. What is probably less perplexing in falling in line with our cultural stereotypes is that that the number of spendthrifts among females was much higher than in men.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

One more reason to learn about Greasemonkey


During the course of sharing a computer with someone while reading an article online, I've discovered that I am far from the only one who slowly highlights words as they read down the page. I'm not sure whether it is due to keeping my eyes focused on words like speed readers use their fingers on tangible pages or perhaps it is the eyestrain of constantly staring into a dull white lightbulb as most reading on the internet (outside of using a Kindle) tends to be--particularly those with largely a white background.

There is however one site I use on a regular basis who seems to aspire to correct this habit the way a nun would slap a pupils fingers with a ruler. The New York Times, in their infinite wisdom, introduced a feature where whenever you double click on any word in their article, an automatic dictionary pops up in a new window. Now I know the New York Times can have an educated vernacular at times, but really? Are people really needing to look up words in the dictionary on the New York Times that often? It's not exactly Tolstoy. The reason the NYT might have considered not implementing this feature (other than its realistic utility) is that everyone who reads text on the computer like I mentioned earlier (a fair percentage of users in my experience) are driven nuts by it. You would think since the Times also requires registration they might have a profile where a user could toggle the feature off, but no.

Queue the arrival of the most simple yet gratifying Greasemonkey script, the New York Times Kill Doubleclick Dictionary. Those who are neither regular users of the New York Times' website nor avid double-click readers might not understand what a relief this script is for some of us, but I assure you it is.

Monday, March 24, 2008

Stealing from the Cookie Jar?


A lawsuit recently cam out from my most recent place of residence, San Diego, coming to a surprising judgment--that Starbucks must pay over $100 million to its baristas due to tip money that went to supervisors. While at first this seems like a great victory for low-paid baristas getting their tips back from stereotypical greedy lazy supervisors--we've all had 'supervisors' in the past that took the meaning of the title a bit to literally--in actuality this was a judgment that flies in the face of common sense.

The key term that substantiates this is that these were SHIFT supervisors. These were NOT managers sitting in chairs in the back room checking their email and assigning people when to work. These were little more than glorified baristas who fulfilled all the duties of a regular barista in terms of beverage preparation, only occasionally chipping in when needed on managerial tasks like ordering supplies.

The statue cited by the plaintiffs was a state law barring managers and supervisors from obtaining a share of employee tips. This is when it really starts to become clear how messy things can get when government tries to regulate business with broad sweeping legislation. It would seem that Starbucks, combining the modern business strategy of more seamless flow between managers and employees with another modern business strategy of job title inflation to create incentives for lower employees and created the "Shift Supervisor" role which hardly fit the common term of 'supervisor', but fulfilled the previously mentioned goals of streamlining and incentivizing.

Unfortunately for those supervisors, they will now be getting paid LESS than those their supervising on some days as the judge as issued an injunction against ever sharing in future tips. Perhaps by the letter of the law the judge is correct, but clearly this was an atrociously written law by legislators with good intentions but poor foresight.

The larger question is whether government should have any sort of role in this part of business. As someone who has worked in a restaurant I might argue that a fairer law would be forcing servers at restaurants to share tips with cooks in the back of the house. As it stands, there's no real way for restaurant patrons to tip the cook when they have a delicious meal when in fact many assume that tips will be shared (since they sometimes are) and furthermore, I'm sure I'm not the only one to tip more when a meal is particularly outstanding even when the server might have had nothing to do with it.

Saturday, March 22, 2008

Gas prices from around the world


Every so often as gas prices continue to rise across America, it is important to remind ourselves that we actually have it pretty damn good here--at least in terms of gas prices. Fabulously40.com did a great spread comparing what we pay to the rest of the world. The clear conclusion is that the rest of the developed countries continue to pay a substantial amount more than us Americans. Large oil-producing countries in the developing world on the other hand at least seem to get low prices on gas although given the terrible strife usually associated with those places, I won't argue that it's a fair trade.

What this layman's survey of gas prices doesn't factor in of course is that Europeans' high gas (or should I say 'petrol') prices are most attributed to the high taxes the governments place on each litre for roads and other vehicle-related government expenditures. I have to say though, I envy the Europeans' approach to these taxes. Not only does this method seem to make sense from a fairness standpoint--the more you drive, the more taxes you have to pay proportionally--but also from an economics standpoint, a consumption-based tax would add incentives to driving less and investing in alternative energy technology which would be beneficial for a multitude of environmental and political reasons.

Saturday, March 08, 2008

Business Attire


Just how important is appearance in the business world? From a micro level, when I look around offices I've been in, it seems absurd that the people in positions of power were there due to their physical appearance. Furthermore, when you look to someone like Bill Gates, certainly he did not get where he is today from debonair looks . The problem is, when you look at these questions from a micro level, you miss out on the more subtle (and perhaps subconcious) large trends. Sure when it comes down to a qualified applicant with some skin blemishes versus a bumbling Fabio, the former will win out, however, when the field has been narrowed down to a sparse number of candidates, as is often the case, our primitive instincts will likely play a part.

Studies have found a direct correlation between BMI and wages over a lifetime. Of course this has to be taken with a slight grain of salt as the correlation might not be a causation, but rather a symptom of being poor. For example, rich people are often able to afford healthier fresher food while the poor will often survive on unhealthy but cheap starches and processed food. Furthermore, there are other correlations such as being able to afford a gym membership, being educated about about nutrition and for many, more spare time to devote to staying healthy. Or it could be a simple correlation that healthy people are more likely to have a strong work ethic that leads to career success in the same way that it keeps them healthy rather than the latter causing the former. And yet, I don't think it requires too much of a stretch to imagine that attractiveness has some sort of effect on hirings and promotions.

Along those same lines of the BMI correlation, studies have shown that CEOs of Fortune 500 companies are almost universally over 6 feet tall. Now for those of us such as this writer destined to a life of looking up to those people in an unfortunate literal sense, that might seem disheartening. However, the lemonade one should make from those lemons is that appearance can most certainly play a big part so it is important to pay close attention to it in the business environment.

For me who seems to perpetually live on a budget, work clothes has always been something I've scrimped on. Interview clothes were the only exception--I understood the value of a first impression, but after that, I always figured 'why should I concern myself with wearing particularly smart clothing for my co-workers who seem like they could care less? As long as I followed the dress code, is there really much of a point to spending money on work clothes versus a more comfortable bed, a fun night out with friends, or other goods and services that I seem to derive much more pleasure out of?

In light of these recent studies though, it's been a bit of an eye-opener of something I really shouldn't look past as much as I do. Now that doesn't mean I need to take a trip up to 5th avenue and buy some Armani, but perhaps I should earnestly look at revamping a lot of my wardrobe as a form of investment rather than a merely a vein frivolous expenditure.

Monday, March 03, 2008

Euro update


Well its been a difficult past few months trying to trade the Euro. The strategy of one-directional trading has an obvious weakness and that is when the market begins ranging. Since I began employing this strategy back in November, the market had been stuck in a range (at least on the 4 hour and daily timeframes) for most of the time. Although I caught I nice trade I mentioned on the blog back in December, January and the first half of February on the other hand were pretty rough as I kept getting stopped out when the market would range and doing a lot of give and take. In addition to that, the 50 pip trailing stop doesn't seem to be what it used to be. You can follow the daily average true range and see that it has been steadily over the past couple of years. I imagine this is mainly due to the increased trading of this currency by the major banks and institutions as the Euro cements itself as the major currency pair of the world.

Had I been trading this currency a year or two ago, the 50 pip trailing stop was truly a 'set-it-and-forget-it' type of trade. It could easily take several days before the trade was closed. Recently however, I've been finding myself more and more checking the charts throughout the day to watch the trade, watching it nervously as the Euro could easily plummet 70+ points with little notice. I am beginning to consider increasing the distance of the stoploss.

Granted of course there is an obvious downside to doing this--my position size would be cut in half (those 50 pip wins won't be quite the bonus to my account), however, I think trading would be more relaxing than it currently is. I think I would have much more of a feeling that I'm jumping in a steady current than now where it is beginning to feel a bit like a whitewater rafting adventure as I hope not to crash into rocks along the banks. Buying on dips would be less stressful as well since I could misjudge when the trend will resume by up to 99 pips and still catch the catch a hold of current.

Of course, I need to stay realistic as my optimism is certainly aided by the recent surge of the Euro as it finally burst through the 1.5000 ceiling and hardly looked back. A market correction is certain, but as long as the US government continues borrowing and spending like drunken sailors and Bernanke lowers those interest rates, I see no reason to believe 2008 won't be a successful year for my portfolio (undiversified though it may be)!

Friday, February 29, 2008

The End to the Writer's Strike


Well the writer's strike is over at last. It was always slightly confusing what exactly the entire dispute was about. And I'm not sure whether that was due to nondisclosure agreements regarding the negotiations or whether the news organizations I most listen to simply didn't want to bore us with the intricacies of the business and financial disagreements.

Some of the most interesting openings into the world of the strike was through the late night talk show hosts such as Leno, Letterman, Conan, Stewart, Colbert, and Bill Maher. Not to say that they weren't particularly biased since most if not all of the hosts are former writers. This is of course in addition to the left-leaning tendencies of hollywood in general and most of these hosts included. Because of all this, while the strike was going on these hosts would regularly rip into the producers' stance. Of course I realize that these likely were often straw man versions of the arguments. What was mos interesting was afterward when the dispute was finally settled, there seemed a general feeling of 'was it worth it?'

Many of their new new media internet rights they negotiated for in the deal don't come into effect for 2 weeks after initial release--to me that seems a pretty damaging blow. I understand that sometimes you have to use the stick when in negotiations, but given that all these people had to go without work for such a long time, the impression seems to be that on balance the strike was a poor choice. As a further point, the fact that there was hardly any doubt that the negotiation would be approved when it went to vote to the union members, seemed to clearly indicate that teh writer's were desperate for work. It was especially unfortunate for those writers on shows like late night talk shows who really gain nothing from rights to internet content, yet were out of work and pay all the same. And now, just when we thought we'd seen the end, there are rumblings in the distance of an actors' strike looming in the in the future!

So while I'm dying for some more Lost, and Pushing Daisies, it looks like I might need to keep this Netflix subscription I picked up during the strike still going.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Young Millionaires


In an article that is simultaneously inspiring and disheartening, Forbes had a recent article on young millionaires. I say that because while it is inspirational what many of these veritable 'kids' were able to do with only a modest amount of capital or education, it is also rather slightly disheartening to compare it to what you had done by age 20, or even your current age.

It is difficult to exactly find a common thread in all of them besides of course an 'entrepreneurial spirit'. One of the most interesting of the case stories was Cameron Johnson who clearly has more than the average amount of that spirit. In fact some might argue that perhaps he has a bit too much of it after he bought toys from his sister that clearly were worth a great deal more than he paid her in order to sell it on eBay.

One interesting lesson is that it is a misconception that how 'new' of a product or service you must provide and how much you need to dominate competitors. Often when we read about successful entrepreneurs, for obvious reasons we primarily read about the most successful entrepreneurs who go on to completely dominate their market. And yet, many of the unquestionably successful entrepreneurs only find a very slight niche such as Catherine Cook who created a social networking site that caters to high school students. To me, if I heard the pitch for such a website my initial reaction would be "How will you compete against Facebook, Myspace, Orkut et al. when they already have thousands upon thousands of high school students on their sites". Yet it appears that assessment would simply be wrong since she has found success with the venture.

In other words, perhaps the lesson is that it's okay for an entrepreneur to take a chance on just shooting for the moon rather than the stars.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Where is the line? Is there one?


I heard an ad recently on the radio for the Ashley Madison Agency. Now as someone who has been a pretty avid user of the internet for many years now, I have been unfortunately privy to some shocking sites, but I never thought what would really make my jaw drop would be a dating website!

The basic premise of the site is online dating exclusively for married couples to find affairs. Perhaps what made it particularly shocking was it being brazenly advertised on the radio giving it an air of mainstream acceptance. I ended up hearing an interview with the creator of the site and found it an impressive example of the degrees of rationalization humans can get into. At the end of the day, this guy is trying to turn a profit by enabling cheating.

Certainly I don't think such a site should be illegal or anything of the sort, but I do feel like the site crosses a line too far. While some might say "well people would cheat any way", economics would tell you that when you make an activity more attainable, i.e reducing the cost, you will increase the demand. Clearly the end of result of the site will be more people cheating on their spouses than otherwise would. As such it amazes me that the site's creator, a married man, has been able to rationalize this to himself. It seems like moral relativism to an extreme.

In the interview the creator came across as extremely proud of his business idea that filled a niche in the market--and given the 100,000+ users of the site, clearly there is a niche. In a sense, it is a testament to the entrepreneurial drive to start a successful niche-filling business that one could actually be proud of such an endeavor.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Smart Keyword Searches


There is a really great feature in Firefox (and a similar one in Opera) that doesn't seem to be very popular, but I think its just that most people don't know about it. The feature is called 'Smart Keywords'. It used to be the case that whenever I wanted to use a particular type of search engine such as YouTube or a online deal search like at Slickdeals I would either have to bookmark that site or find the firefox extension at the Mycroft project to stick on my upper-right search box and have it appended to the drop down menu. Fortunately I discovered this Smart Keywords feature that not only makes searching much faster, but simply much less of a pain.

To start with, find a search engine that you want to make this 'shortcut' to. My favorites are probably YouTube, eBay, Amazon, Craigslist and Wikipedia (though there's a great trick for Wikipedia that I'll go into later). So go to the search field, right-click in the field and select "Add a keyword for this search". There is then a small dialog box asking you for a name (this doesn't really matter) and a keyword. I like to put in a short abbreviation like 'yt' for YouTube, 'cl' for Craigslist, etc. This will create a bookmark (if you end up using this feature, you should probably make a separate folder to store these in to keep them out of the way of your real bookmarks). Now whenever you want use the search, go to the address bar with ctrl+L and type in the keyword followed by the search term e.g. "yt tom cruise couch". It seems slightly complicated at first and maybe slightly hard to remember the individual keyword for the searches, but once you get into the swing of it, you use it all the time for for countless sites.

Now the slightly more advanced section. Often it is simply better to search for a site using Google's domain search function both due to their server's speed and the quality of the result. Wikipedia which I mentioned earlier is an especially good example of this. What you can do in these situations is type in a search as you normally would such as "site:en.wikipedia.org example". Once you're on the search results page, bookmark the search, right-click on the bookmark, go to properties, add a keyword, and then the key trick is to find whatever search term you used (in this case, "example") buried in the long URL and replace it with "%s" (no quotes). After that it function just like the other Smart Keyword searches.

Now I never use the second search box and only use the Google toolbar very occasionally for its suggested search feature. Enjoy!

Monday, February 18, 2008

Greenspan's Age of Turbulence


Lately I’ve been listening to Alan Greenspan’s Age of Turbulence and I have to say it is a fantastic book. Though I never studied Economics in the academic level past Macroeconomics 101, I’ve long held an interest in it, particularly at the macro level. Greenspan gives a fascinating insight into what goes on behind closed doors with some colorful anecdotes that give a human touch to the seemingly disparate nature of the Federal Reserve. One of my favorite moments was when he first began chairing the meetings and was introduced to the arcane and complex language that had become virtually required of all members and he would joke to his assistant ‘whatever happened to the English language around here?’

The first part of the book is dedicated to following his path from growing up in a single parent household to becoming the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Normally I think of these top government positions that are appointed as being plagued with a lot of cronyism and who knows who. That's why it was refreshing to see how hard he worked starting with academics through the business world and only finally receiving his well-deserved position. Makes me want to start on those business school applications soon.

Although he is definitely republican, harking back to his days as a colleague of Ayn Rand, he gave some interesting analysis of the Presidents he worked with throughout the years starting beginning with the Nixon administration through the current George W. Bush administration. Of all the presidents, he seemed to have the most respect for the unelected President Ford and felt pity for him as he followed a prudent economic policy but had the misfortune of the election coinciding with a downturn of the economic business cycle.

Very interesting as well was his respect for Bill Clinton who although stood on the opposite side of the political fence with a party not normally associated with fiscal conservatism, was steadfastly dedicated to doing what he could to ensure long-term growth, most importantly cutting the budget and deficit in the face of extreme opposition. This was a stark contrast to his analysis of the second Bush’s economic conduct which has allowed for rampant deficit spending and the instability of the dollar.

The next part centers around the different economic ideologies. There won’t be much surprise which ideology he ends up favoring, but given the rest of the book, I’m looking forward to reading a pretty objective and well thought out argument.

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Irrational Economics


There was a very interesting article last month in the LA Times by Dr. Michael Shermer on humans' innate irrationality in money matters. A lot of the findings seem to fly a bit in the face of the classical Adam Smith's assumptions of self-interested rationality and maximization in the market.

The first study mentioned is a thought experiment supposing that if the cost of all goods and services remained the same, would you rather earn $50,000 per year while everyone else earns $25,000 or $100,000 per year while everyone else earns $250,000. Given the premise, cold logic makes this seem an easy answer--Option B. However, emotion perhaps plays a greater part of economic decisions than we give it credit for as the most common answer is Option A.

However, I would argue that this thought exercise is not very telling about our microeconomic decisions but perhaps rather our motivations behind doing so. To begin, the premise of supposing that all goods and services remained the same while the average income multiplies ten fold, is a bit of a stretch from a basic inflationary standpoint. Many economic choices are goods and services which provide the same basic outcome but are based on sliding scale of relativity that separates what the rich can pay versus the poor. First class on Virgin Airlines versus the red-eye flight on United Airlines, downtown apartment near the metro versus an apartment in the suburbs with no nearby public transportations or entertainment centers. It seems no surprise to me that when the average person envisages what life choices would be available to someone who earns less than half the average income, it is hardly desirable.


Furthermore, while this study highlights an interesting bit of the human psyche--that we are motivated more by social standing than actual economic worth, in the real world these are going to result in the same outcome. Both motivations would result in the self-interested, hard-working, risk-taking and innovation central to capitalist theory.

McDonald's and Starbucks at War


I never really saw this battle coming, but after eying the enormous revenue fellow multi-national chain, Starbucks is making, McDonald's has decided to enter the market of fancy coffee. Having recently received some surprisingly positive reviews regarding their drip coffee, McDonald's will move it up a notch and install espresso machines and baristas to create lattes, cappuccinos, machiattos, and the rest.

My first impression is that it seems like a very strange mix. Perhaps I'm not a coffee aficionado, but when I head to Starbucks or other comparable cafe, I'm usually going there for the preferable atmosphere. That is, preferable to my own apartment and most certainly preferable to the plastic and vinyl chairs under acres of fluorescent lighting found in my nearby McDonald's. I was never really under the impression that I was going to Starbucks for top of the line coffee--at the end of the day, its just a massive franchise chain.

I suppose I can see it from McDonald's perspective. From their vantage point, Starbucks has supplanted them as the king of the franchises, with seemingly limitless growth and showing up in the farthest reaches of the capitalist world. Meanwhile they are doing this not on the McDonald's method of offering impressive value for money, but on the contrary having rather shocking markups on combining brewed cofffee with various incarnations of cream and sugar.

Still, to me this new strategy reeks of desperation from a franchise on the descent. There is a reason Starbucks' strategy has been successful without focusing heavily on value for money and that is that this is not our grandparent's economy. Disposable income continues to rise and fewer people are staring at the decimal places when paying for small indulgences. As much as McDonald's would like to think they are only a small price war away from barreling into the coffee industry, it is a different world they are attempting to forge into. I believe it is very indicative of their differences that while the tasks might not be all that different, you would never expect to leave a tip for a McDonald's employee whereas people are constantly leaving their change and then some in the Starbucks barista's jar.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Overhyping the Recession?


With all that's been going on in the economy lately, it's hard not to start using the 'R' word that's being thrown around a lot recently. There has been the sub-prime mortgages scandal, the stock market plummeting, an extremely expensive war and an accompanying Congress that pushes the U.S. further and further into debt. As we see the dollar continue to plummet, its hard not to call a spade a spade: the economy is in recession.

However, before we start too much doom and gloom, its important to keep some perspective. To provide some, Zimbabwe has recently unveiled a $10 million bill. This is now the highest denomination of currency in the world and roughly equal to a whopping $4.00. Unfortunately it is not the consequence of a different base number system, but rather it is due to an extraordinary case of hyperinflation of over 50,000% per year! Residents who fail to spend money as fast as they can get it, must pay for daily goods such as the bar patron in this photo for his bottle of beer:

It's hard to even imagine what it's like to live in such a situation. Any sort of loan is a virtual impossibility as lenders will never be able get their money back in time to make such a venture worthwhile. Saving for retirement is clearly a fruitless endeavor, as is virtually any sort of saving for a future expense whether it be a vacation or saving in case of a medical emergency.

So while we hang our heads with the dollar tanking, exports dragging and job markets drying, let's not forget it could be a whole lot worse!

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Scrabulous Sued


Sad news for those of us who were avid users of the 3rd party Facebook application--Scrabulous has been demanded to remove its application by Hasbro and Mattel. While on the one hand I am saddened by this news, on the other hand I am perplexed as to why the makers of Scrabulous, brothers Rajat and Jayant Agarwalla, came up with business plan hinged completely upon copying a well-known game. While they might have gotten away previously with claiming the only make "a little bit of money" through advertising costs in order to run the server on Scrabulous.com now that they have built the Facebook add-on and it is being run through its servers, how can they justify what must be a good sum of advertising dollars (the application services 500,000+ users per day) on complete copyright infringement?

When I first saw the application on Facebook and its detail down to the coloring of the the double/triple letter/word scores, I was surprised not to see any advertising of the parent company (not that I knew who it was at the time), a trademark sign or the fact that it wasn't simply called "Scrabble". According to the Agarwalla brothers, they were even approached by investors. What exactly did they think was going to happen? That Hasbro and Mattel were going to offer them money for copying their game? Let's be honest, this piece of software was not exactly Photoshop CS3 (not that I could make it, but a multinational corporation would have zero trouble). Or did they think the corporations would simply ignore the lost revenue even as the application grew in popularity?

I can only imagine that the success of their application grew much faster than they could have imagined and before they knew it, lawyers were knocking at their door. Still I have to say they were a bit naive.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Rogue Trader on the Loose


Not to be confused with these Rogue Traders, a fascinating story to come out on Thursday was the case of 31-year-old Jerome Kerviel, a junior member of the trading staff at the Société Générale bank. At the time of writing, the bank's officials and police investigators continue to leave it extremely unclear just how Kerviel was able to trade $73 billion worth of trading positions without any oversight.

It is also very unclear is what his exact motivation was for doing this. At this point, any comments are only speculative. Perhaps he thought he had an insight into the market that he did not have? Or maybe he could have been going for glory? It is intriguing to wonder what would have happened if the $7.3 billion in losses he incurred had had been in the black instead of the red. I heard a story recently from a man who runs a stockbroking firm who had an employee simply enter one more zero than he meant to and in very little time had cost his firm $1 million. Perhaps Kerviel made a simple error as such and then began a Martingale strategy that spiraled out of control. The mysterious lack of transparency in what actually happened makes me wonder if this was the work of a nihilist going for notoriety and destruction a la Fight Club.

One thing is for sure: in a relative sense, it certainly makes one feel better about what we see as 'big' losses when compared to the work of Mr. Jerome Kerviel.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

DS & Disneyland Partnership


In what I think is a very clever move, Nintendo and Disney have worked together on a project to use Nintendo DS's as interactive tour guides while at Disneyland. Having been there recently, I remember thinking that although it was a great time, the time spent sitting and waiting in line there was easily the least fun part of the visit. Though I didn't have one at the time, I saw a couple of people there playing on their DS or Sony PSP while waiting in line. The DS in particular seems like a great idea with its ability to play with nearby DS's using the console's Wi-Fi connection and it's clamshell design would help protect it from the trauma while sitting in a rollercoaster rider's pocket.

With this latest development of GPS navigation, mapping, and possibly even more exciting features of informing you of the wait times at rides all around the park, this really seems like a great idea. From Nintendo's standpoint they get the advertising for those seeing kiosks and other visitors with DS's and their impressive functionality and perhaps additional sales from people planning to head to the park who hear about this news. Disney of course benefits from increasing features for its visitors and perhaps by encouraging them to bring something to occupy themselves while in line, reduces the greatest detraction from their amusement park. It will be very interesting to see the final product.

Monday, January 14, 2008

The $50,000 Bed


Amidst all the the various A/V gadgetry at this year's Consumer Electronics Show, was a product that garnered attention not so much for a breakthrough technology, clever design or other points of interest popular among CES attendees, but rather for its sheer superfluousness and gall: The Starry Night Sleep Technology Bed, AKA The $50,000 bed. Now while I've been thinking recently that perhaps we should have devoted a little more of our income to the furniture we spend a good third of our life on, I hadn't yet looked what this price range had to offer.

Though I imagine a good-sized majority of the public wouldn't want many of the features the bed comes with, I have to admit, I do find the feature list tantalizing. As someone who will take their laptop into bed from time to time, the wireless connectivity is a plus. Then there is the iPod connection to listen to something as I fall asleep and even an attached projector to watch something on the opposite wall!

I could definitely appreciate the dual controls of firmness as I enjoy a soft, cool bed while my better half prefers the complete opposite. Finally, said better half would also occasionally much enjoy the feature that jostles a back-sleeping snorer to roll back onto their side.

Even still, $50,000 for a bed seems almost laughable. It seems like you could buy the various components with the exception of the snore-preventer (who knows how well that actually works) and build it for under 10,000 I'd imagine. I guess the reality is that this bed is made for the Donald Trump demographic who only wants the best and gives price tags barely a passing glance.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray the Final Chapter?


Due to living without a TV for quite a while and having laptops no bigger than 15.4", I've barely had a passing interest in the whole HD-DVD versus Blu-ray format war. However, with my recent purchase of a projector, I starting to take a much closer look at how to jump into the HD revolution since there is definitely a noticeable difference between standard and high definition when you blow up an image that big.

As I've mentioned before, I'm a pretty price conscious guy, so I was pretty heavily leaning towards the cheaper HD-DVD alternative. Most of the news I had read in the last few months seemed to lean towards HD-DVD winning the format war. It seemed that HD-DVD was selling more players, particularly when you excluded Playstation 3's from Blu-Ray's count since those were really bought to play games, not movies. Furthermore, the tech-junkies were saying that the features of the two discs were nearly identical and when you factored in the lower cost of HD-DVD, Sony's Blu-Ray format was starting to look in dire shape.

However, fast-forward to January 2008 and in a surprise move, two of the biggest movie producers, Universal and Warner, have suddenly jumped shipped and dropped their former HD-DVD exclusivity. This swing leaves HD-DVD reeling as Blu-Ray now has a much larger share of the DVD market available to them as they retain their Blu-Ray exclusive deals.

Many predicted Sony would lose this format war as they did the PSP UMD, the Minidisc and of course the notorious Betamax. However this time it appears their high-risk tactics with PS3 such as delaying the release, raising the price well above its competitors and taking a loss on each unit sold, all in order to squeeze in the Blu-Ray functionality, paid off in the end. I believe that while some felt PS3s didn't 'count' when statistics were gathered regarding Blu-Ray players sold, at the same time, surely all those who had bought PS3s were much less likely to go out and buy an HD-DVD player and then HD-DVDs than to simply buy and rent Blu-Ray discs. From the studios' standpoints, as the PS3's sales picked up steam, the impetus was clear.

So now while those HD-DVD players look mighty tempting at their now-low price, the prudent option is to look exclusively for a Blu-Ray player. Specifically, the informed choice is actually to purchase a PS3 due to Sony's recent announcement that there will be a Blu-Ray 2.0 format that has extra features which will only be available to future Blu-Ray players....and their Playstation III. However, while they continue to hover around the $400 mark, I'm going to wait this out a bit longer.